IRAN "IS A COCK-UP NOT A CONSPIRACY"

31-03-2007

Iran's disgraceful treatment of the 15 captured British Navy personnel - parading them on television, issuing “confessions” - masks the fact that the Middle Eastern state is probably as desperate as Britain for a quick resolution to the crisis.

The Stirrer's Westminster sources suggest that despite conspiracy theories that have surfaced on this website and elsewhere (eg that Britain deliberately engineered the confrontation or that Iran was seeking a bargaining chip) the arrest of our sailors and marines was probably down to a simple cock-up.

This version of events suggests that some “trigger happy rating” in the Iranian navy saw what he imagined was an encroachment and unilaterally decided to take action. Once the British had been pulled in, however, Teheran had to justify what had been done, and so argued that there had been an incursion into their waters.

On this issue, incidentally, the respected Canadian website Global Research suggests that the UK government is being disingenuous to suggest that our Navy were "clearly" in Iraqi waters; not least because these boundaries have never been formally agreed. They also point out that HMS Cornwall was captured closer to Iran than Iraq (see more at here)

The view of our defence contacts - notwithstanding the attempt to humiliate the captives - is that Teheran simply wants some “wiggle room” so that it can free our sailors without loss of face.

They point out that the government there encouraged Iraq's Shia population to take part in last year's elections, and while they are understandably jumpy at having their neighbour occupied by US and UK forces, they are not spoiling for a fight.

Iran has an extremely sophisticated and well-educated secular elite who well understand the consequences of any foolish action; British diplomacy is geared towards keeping themonside, knowing that to inflame the situation will only increase support for President Ahmadinejad and the country's more hard-line religious leaders.

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