HOME SEC SMITH COULD BE TOPPLED WARNS FABBO

17-03-2008

A Midlands Conservative MP has dismissed a Sunday Times poll showing Labour’s support at a 25-year low as "too good to be true." But he insists there’s been a "profound shift" in public attitudes to his own party which could see Home Secretary Jacqui Smith toppled in her own constituency.

Michael Fabricant, who represents Lichfield in the Commons was responding to two surveys in yesterday’s papers.

The Sunday Times/You Gov research showed the Conservatives with 43% support, Labour with 27% and the Lib Dems with 16%. If this was replicated at an election, David Cameron’s party would have a majority of 120.

This is “just too good to be true” says Fabricant.

He’s less sceptical of the News of the World/ICM study which has the Tories at 40%, Labour at 31% and the Lib Dems at 9%.

“Despite an unrealistically low figure shown for Lib-Dem support (probably because they made little impact in the budget debate both in the media and in Parliament), it shows for the first time since 1992 that trust in the Conservatives on economic matters now exceeds Labour by 38% to 28%” he observes.

“This is a profound shift and vindicates the caution shown in announcing any premature tax cuts and consequent perceived (by the electorate) cuts in public services.

"Moreover, it is that growing faith in the Conservatives' commitment to public services which leads ICM to reveal that the Conservatives now lead Labour on being more 'in touch' by 44% to 29%. These two underlying trends will be very worrying to the Government.”

Fabricant’s analysis of the ICM survey suggests the Tories would win a 30 seat majority in parliament, and would take Birmingham Selly Oak and Birmingham Edgbaston from Labour – not to mention Redditch, where Home Secretary Jacqui Smith is MP.

Other vulnerable Labour seats in the West Midlands include Halesowen and Rowley Regis and Wolverhampton South West.

Liberal Democrat Lorely Burt would also lose her Solihull seat to the Conservatives.